Morgan Stanley Predicts End of the Crypto Winter, Spring Ahead
Global investment bank Morgan Stanley has predicted the end of the crypto winter and the arrival of spring. The wealth management division of the bank announced that crypto winter might be history, with crypto spring on the horizon. Denny Galindo, the bank analyst, has revealed a seasonal pattern in the world of cryptocurrencies, with most gains occurring post-halving events that take place every four years.
Morgan Stanley's Take on 'Crypto Spring'
The wealth management division of Morgan Stanley presents an intriguing analogy between crypto price movements and the seasons of the year. In their latest report titled "Will Crypto Spring Ever Come?" Galindo outlines the four distinct phases of cryptocurrency prices and highlights that they align with the changing seasons.
Drawing a parallel, he states, "Just as a farmer avoids planting seedlings in the winter or too late in the spring, crypto investors want to know when crypto spring has arrived to maximize their investment 'growing season.'"
While acknowledging that there have only been three crypto springs thus far and that much remains to be learned, Galindo optimistically declares:
"Based on current data, signs indicate that crypto winter may be in the past and that crypto spring is likely on the horizon."
Defining crypto spring, Galindo describes it as the phase leading up to each halving, characterized by bitcoin's recovery from its cyclic low levels, although investor interest typically remains lukewarm. It's worth noting that the last three crypto winters, dating back to 2011, have lasted approximately 13 months each.
Galindo concludes with an essential observation:
"Historically, most of bitcoin's gains come directly after a 'halving' event that occurs every four years."
The analyst predicts the next halving to take place sometime around April 2024 and reiterates, "Signs indicate that 'crypto winter'—bitcoin's cyclical bear-market decline—may be in the past."
In a final note of caution, Galindo adds, "While no one can tell you if now is the right time to buy or sell cryptocurrency, today is the right time to learn more about the crypto market's cyclical tendencies so that you can ask questions, monitor trends, and determine for yourself if the cycle will repeat a fourth time and whether to invest."
A Growing Wave of Optimism
Morgan Stanley's positive outlook on the crypto market is shared by a growing number of experts and analysts. In April, Standard Chartered Bank confidently declared that the crypto winter had ended and predicted that the price of bitcoin could reach USD 100,000 next year. In March, the CEO of investment management firm Vaneck said: “We are at the very beginnings of what could be a several-year cycle” in gold and bitcoin.
Crypto financial services platform Matrixport has predicted that if the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approves Blackrock's spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), bitcoin's price could surge to a range between USD 42,000 and USD 56,000.
Do you agree with the Morgan Stanley analyst on crypto spring? Please share your thoughts and opinions in the comments section below.
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